Having accurately predicted every election since 2014 and having responded to the kind of 'calls to action' that were put in at the #IndyRef2020 rally at 'Freedom Square' (George Square to the non-SNP Cultists who are capable of critical thinking), this post looks at GE2019 and why IndyRef2 will probably fail.
Like every other industry politics has been disrupted by both technology and new methods, thanks in large part to the unholy alliance of Trump, Bannon and Facebook... And politicians have struggled to get a handle on what's going on (Jaron Lanier's '10 Arguments for Deleting your Social Media Account Right Now and
Edith Eger's The Choice are WELL worth a read! Both Michael Wolff books and The Great Hack documentary are worth checking out too).
If I start this post with something like:
"This is all wrong. I shouldn't be writing this. My kids should be in the kind of school that our politicians and policy makers give in their fine speeches. Yet you all let young people like this lose hope. How dare you!
"You have stolen my dreams and my kids' childhoods with your empty words. And yet I'm one of the lucky ones
...You are failing us. But the young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say: We will never forgive you"
I wonder if it will be praised or see my local MSP tell me that the comment is 'Borderline Harassment,' I wonder if it will see the Education Secretary or First Minister praise the work that myself, my 9 year old son and others have done in the last few years?
In my experience, don't count on it... Check out the replies from MSPs in this pathetically hilarious Tweet:
I'm the first to admit that we are among the lucky ones to live in a country where education is a right and there is a system that helps when you are down... But equally Dalrymple is also right when he highlights that:
One of the terrible fates that can befall a human being is to be born intelligent or sensitive in an English slum (But Glasgow has more of them than anywhere in England today #GoDo #ScotlandCan!). It is like a long, slow, exquisite torture devised by a sadistic deity from whose malevolent clutches escape is almost impossible. Lost in the Ghetto
But when you see initiative after initiative and no real change since Dickensian times with 'Social Mobility,' 'The Attainment Gap,' 'Opportunity Area Fund' etc etc... the political soundbites Vs the reality becomes a little tiresome.
Throw in the fact that 20,000 retail outlets closed last year at the cost of 150,000 jobs and 2019 is set to see 23,000 outlets close at the cost of 175,000 jobs... what is it that is replacing them in 'The Most Entrepreneurial country in the world' <- if you listen to Entrepreneurial Scotlands marketing guff.
I'm enjoying the Netflix series 'Living with yourself' and how Paul Rudd's 'Better self' is listened to, but his other self saying the same thing is marginalised.
If you are Greta Thrunberg and encourage kids to take action, people go on #SchoolClimateStrikes and Scottish politicians praise the action. Tell politicians at a fancy ass UN event in New York and express your 'disgust' at them and you are applauded.
Try to encourage change in education - regardless of the tone used or the communication method used - in the SNP's blessed #GoDo #ScotlandCan land of milk and honey and see what reaction it gets.
Help empower other people's kids and educators and then try having kids in an education system where you constantly say "This doesn't seem right, there seems to be issues" then wait until they are leaving the education system and be told "Yeah, there appear to be undiagnosed issues"
See how cheery a tone you'd be using?
To highlight the level of stupidity we are talking about here even when you send information with the title 'How MSPs can keep their jobs' you get a low level of inquiry... Even when your insights and projects have value.
"If you have insights that prove to be accurate but struggle to be heard... when and where should you speak up? Before disaster? During? After?
Well... I have spoken up before, during and after various train wrecks of initiatives that people in Education have been involved with. I have also tried to raise the alarm since September 2014 with The SNP with the content of this post.
Speak up before hand and you're being negative. Speak up at the time and you're dismissed out of hand, silenced or ignored. Speak out afterwards and it's either you coming across as being smug or rubbing salt in the wounds etc.
Regardless of when you speak out or the reaction the fact remains... opportunities for change are lost!" GE2017 & The SNP - How the Mighty Fall
Saturday
Listening to the
"Scotland is Diverse, Inclusive and Welcoming"
"Scotland's destiny is in our hands"
"No matter where you are from you are welcome and this is your independence"
Rhetoric at the weekend might have been inspiring and uplifting for me in 2014/5, it might even have left warm fuzzy feelings for the party faithful yesterday... Until they went into their local newsagent:
The front page of Friday's papers being full of the depressing levels of poverty here
- Foodbanks offering suicide Advice - The Evening Times
- The expensive Attainment Gap initiatives not working - The Herald
The front page of one of Sunday's papers includes the level of racism in
SCOTTISH SCHOOLS
...Not English Schools.
...Not Welsh Schools
...The
DEVOLVED Education that the SNP/Scottish Government is responsible for!
On the next page was an article about how deprived Scotland's towns are today. Of course the default answer will be
'It's the Tories fault... and the rhetoric of hate and division Boris uses'
Of course there IS something to this, but when that's the excuse since 2007 it wears a bit thin!
Especially if, over the course of the 2007 SNP Government you have had a 16 year old and 18 year old in this 'World Class Education System' that have been BADLY let down and/or you see how uninspiring the job pages are... AKA Sorry We Missed You zero hour contracts, self employed, minimum wage for your wage, you take care of your own tax etc.
9th Sept 2014
For the first time I wrote a post about education and politics
"I am not an ardent SNP supporter, neither do I necessarily want to be separate from the rest of the UK.
However, what I do want, is to see better decisions being made for my kids and other peoples children... I can't see the status quo delivering this (esp as they have been failing at it for decades, if not centuries!), so I feel change is necessary. I don't believe that the SNP and/or an independent Scotland would have the same record with education or class division and elitism" Getting Political... About Education
With the benefit of #Cybernat hindsight and the fact that the SNP were clueless about how to manage their grassroots movement in 2014, with the exception of the above... I stand by everything else in the post
...Especially the "Why not you? Why not us? Why not now?" section at the end, something I have gone some way to demonstrate since writing it. As Sam Conniff highlights in his Tedx Talk
"No one is coming to save us"
19th Sept 2014
As Scotland wakes up to the fact that the hopes of Independence have been dashed and the army of #VoteYes feel "a little down" and are licking their wounds... this Glasgow nutter wonders if victory might be snatched out of the jaws of defeat. Is the best yet to come? Yes Scotland - How can we Help?
I wasn't wrong... Will the insights below be just as accurate on the 13th Dec with the result of #GE2019?
21st Sept 2014
Tried to reach various people in the SNP to let them know that momentum with the post vote movement matters... and that they need to act quickly to keep the movement positive.
They heard me, but ignored the advice and insights. Every single piece of advice was 100% spot on!
Citizens Assembly? GREAT idea... Erm in 2014 with 1.6 million people who voted 'Yes' at a cost of £0. If 1.6 million was a little ambitious then the 100,000 members was EASILY possible at a seriously low cost and would have delivered a game changing impact too! All on a budget of £0.
A £1.4 million exercise involving 200 people in 2019?
Lol... What a bunch of idiots who really don't understand what fueled their 2014/5 success!
7th Oct 2014The culture is now set, and hell mend anyone who disagrees with someone who voted Yes! We are the angry boycotters. We are the anarchists. We are the cybernats and it would appear that our mission to piss everyone off and to argue with anyone who disagrees with the hard line we decide to take.
Oh, and by the way, we're not very good with our maths... because 100% of 45% agreeing with each other is still only 45%, no matter how much more strongly we may or may not believe in independence, this is still a minority. #The45Plus... Where did it all go Wrong?
In August 2019 Sturgeon demonstrates her lack of knowledge (And leadership with her own members AKA the Cybernats) with Community Management. I have encouraged politicians to connect and learn from this group since April 2014... on a regular basis since April 2018.
Some community guidelines and leadership on the weekend of 21st Sept could have worked wonders!
6th May 2015
The day before the election when all the pundits were sayng
"These polls about SNP can't be right, can they?"
I wrote why they were right:
This process could be used in many areas of Scottish society. The SNP benefited from the kind of process that major technology companies utilise, so they know it works. When I'll be impressed with the SNP, or any other party, is when they decide to use these principles in other areas, not just politics.
If any politician (from any party) wants to know how to continue to take advantage of this process in politics or, ideally, apply to other areas, especially in education, you know where to find me if you have any questions. Freakonimic Politics: Why SNP Domination was Inevitable
7th May 2015
On election night Henry McLeish came closest to nailing what was going on re: the 'I'm voting SNP' movement. But listening to all the post match guff like 'It will take the Labour Party in Scotland 10 years to recover'
So I wrote these two documents...
When reading 'New Power' in May 2018 I was to both find out how accurate these insights were AND be able to find the terminology for what was going on... Maybe should have tried the 'Radical Listening Exercise' of Citizens Assembly fame from 2007-2014 and not left it as late as 2019?
9th May 2015
“When you are at the top of the world, the most powerful nation on Earth, the most successful company in your industry, the best player in your game, your very power and success might cover up the fact that you’re already on the path to decline. So, how would you know?” Jim Collins, How the Mighty fall
This was the day that SNP MPs social media pictures were changed from images of candidates in their constituencies with their activists to the photo opp with Nicola Sturgeon and the #The45Plus was changed again to #Team56 AKA it's now all about us, not them... 'The People' our fans, members and constituents.
The culture changed on this day as a result of success.
"Many startups die of indigestion as much as of starvation" Genome Project, that was the case at the height of the SNPs rock star celebrity stage in May 2015.
29th Sept 2015
The then Education Secretary asks me to pitch in - in the same way I might have after listening to Mhari Black and Nicola Sturgeon at the weekend - if I didn't know that these were nothing but empty words to get as many of their mates in £70,000 a year jobs ...and not much else!
Having a good idea of how things might pan out when dealing with the political classes... I had the foresight to spend one of the best 30 mins I ever have by writing this post:
Using Core Values to Find a Brands Voice.
If you want to predict the future (Or get a 'bad loan' that the SNP will write off to failing businesses in Scotland) stand up and give a 'fine speech' or issue a press release. Tell educators and students that
"Scotland lacks talent" one year (SLF15)... then a year or two later get £600,000 to make
"Scotland the most entrepreneurial country in the world"
What shit! Across the board... from saying this is a talentless country (Except in the political arena)... to giving funds to someone who does not believe in the potential of a nations people? Maybe the talent is rotting in the many Scottish slums and deprived areas looking for opportunities that don't exist?
Since Sept 2015 I have worked on projects that I feel could be high impact/low cost with few resources, lots of challenges and stress and ZERO! I mean FUCK ALL!! help from the people and organisations that stand up and spout this shit at 'Freedom Square'
10th June 2017
The weekend of the GE2015 result I saw that The SNP was in stage 1 of what Jim Collins calls 'The 5 Stages of Decline"
“When you are at the top of the world, the most powerful nation on Earth, the most successful company in your industry, the best player in your game, your very power and success might cover up the fact that you’re already on the path to decline. So, how would you know?” Jim Collins, How the Mighty fall
Stage 1: Hubris
#Team56 after GE2015
Stage 2: The Undisciplined Pursuit for More
The announcement of #IndyRef2/#ScotRef in March 2017
Stage 3: Denial of Risk
The local election results on the 4th May 2017 and dismissing the result by other parties + going from Team56 to 35 MPs
Stage 4: Grasping for Salvation
All the grassroots movements from 2014-2019 and there has not been representation like this from the SNP and a one-time-proponent-turned-detractor/cynic may think either...
The #IndyRef2020 nationalist propoganda rally at 'Freedom Square' at the weekend:
1) You turn out in force when you want something from 'The People' to crowdfund campaign funds to get you into a £70,000 a year job and then land the £70,000 + expenses + hiring family members + second jobs etc etc or
(Btw have you seen how many Tweets the AUOB account Tweeted on the day? They lay all the ground work only for ScotNational to move in and build on their work, don't be surprised if the organisers become a little less enthusiastic going forward).
2) You KNOW that momentum has been lost and that the 'Network Effects' and 'Feedback Loops' of 2014/5 have gone and with it #IndyRef2 in 2020, so you try to replicate the 2014 success in the same way in 2019... But it won't work (At least nowhere near to the same extent).
"No one saw it coming" Alex Salmond after GE2017 result and him losing his seat
...Me
BEFORE the #GE2017 result!! Politicians may lie... The data doesn't!
"A party with such large numbers of supporters two years ago and only 65 people supporting Salmond's Crowdfunder... WOW austerity must REALLY be kicking in! GE2017 & The SNP How the Mighty Fall
The 2014 'Yes' campaign was a 'New Power' storm where it promised both change and participatory politics... but reverted to 'Old Power' once the crowd delivered what the SNP wanted. The cost? Trust.
As well as these posts various emails have been sent since 2014 to say
'I have some insights that I think might help... I live here and my kids go to school here, I want to help'
But it's far more a case of 'Fuck you' than the
'Scotland's Voice will NOT be ignored!'
Westminster theatrics and fine speeches.
30th Aug 2018 #ForFairness
Announcing a £100,000 crowdfund from Alex Salmond on 20th Sept 2014 during his 'One Scotland' speech for good causes raised by either
1) Taking £1 from each of the 100,000 members subscription fee or, more likely
2) Asking their 100,000 members to contribute £1-10 for a 'One Scotland Good Causes fund'
Would have added to the narrative of members leaving food for foodbanks in George/Freedom Square.
A £100,000 fund for one persons legal fees and titled #ForFairness (Or was it 'For Scotland' I forget which)
This was confirmation about the usual 'Us' and our needs Vs 'The People' -> Just as self interested as the Tories. This sin't something people will shout about... You'll only see it on polling day.
But consider the data... Consider the time and number of steps that 4,000 people needed to go through to contribute money to this GoFundMe camapign in comparison to the act of a ReTweet that takes seconds to do.
If you are looking to replicate 2014 results you need to keep an eye on the 'Network Effects' ...take a look at the number of ReTweets that either #IndyRef2020 or SNP MPs get
...Then change the channel to see how many ReTweets either People's Momentum, Corbyn get at least 300 many well over 1-2,000.
Or, if you prefer, the level of RTs Trump gets in the US - but this too is diminishing rapidly compared to 12-24 months ago!
The numbers ain't there for a repeat of SNP Active 2014/5 in 2019. The 'Network Effects' to take the online support into offline rallies to create 'social proof' isn't there. It is for Labour in England and in 2-3 weeks that could easily make it's way to Scotland... Look at #IndyRef in the 2-3 weeks leading up to 19th Sept 2014!
Go check the combined total of SNP candidates campaign crowdfunds after a week Vs Salmonds in 24 hours in 2018... Is the combined total anywhere near £100,000 after a week of asking for contributions?
Or check the number of advocates on the doorstep (I know its December) and the number of Scottish National #IndyRef2020 posters in the windows compared to 2014/5.
The numbers are not the same... the numbers are not there. The powerful combination of 'Network Effects' and 'Feedback Loops' with 'Social Proof' from 2014 have gone.
'For Fairness' Crowdfunders, Progress Scotland, Citizens Assembly & IndyRef2020
All of these things were the right thing to do... in 2014! Maybe even as late as 2015.
But this organisation didn't take the organisational culture seriously at a crucial time when it was scaling and onboarding new members (Both members of staff and fans).
"Ever heard of a company called Ames? From 1973 to 1986 Ames was doing in the North East of the USA
what Wal-Mart was doing in the South. Ames stock performance tracked Wal-Mart’s. But while Wal-Mart
is alive and well (#1 on the fortune 500), where is Ames today? Dead. Gone. What distinguished Wal-Mart
from Ames? The answer lies in their focus.
Ames acquired a company that changed their focus and destroyed the momentum they built over 3
decades. Wal-Mart continued to focus first on rural small town areas before making an evolutionary
migration into more urban settings. In contrast Ames acquired a chain that made them a significant urban
player overnight. While Wal-Mart remained obsessed with offering everyday low prices on all brands all
the time, Ames dramatically changed to a strategy that was new to them (relying on special loss leader
promotions)…one that eventually plunged them into bankruptcy. Meanwhile Wal-Mart continued its
relentless march across the US – step by step, store by store, region by region – until it reached the North
East and killed Ames with the very same business model that Ames pioneered in the first place" Jim Collins – How the Mighty Fall
Keep an eye out for how the party splits if/when things go wrong. Don't be surprised if the 'fault lines' are along the lines of Alex Salmond and long time members Vs the newer intake of 2015 fans and Nicola Sturgeon's supporters.
Regardless of your politics you're a pretty shit human being if you wish ill on a group who's aims and goals are worthy but may be unwravelling because of issues around scaling... especially if it's the life's work of some people - and I include Salmond in that, regardless of the court case outcome. (But is obviously with the exception of intolerant hate groups who wish to harm others).
Both social media and technical changes are affecting us all... Including the political classes and one of my core values is empathy
"I even have empathy for politicians (believe it or not). We saw how keen Barack Obama wanted health care reform, but he faced some serious challenges with opposition parties and the industries lobby groups.
I also get that politicians need to show that they are doing "something" in a 4 year period to keep their jobs (whether reshuffle, or losing their seats in an election). One of these challenges may be that good ideas can take a while for results to come through.
I can't imagine that a politician would get praised too much from the media or party whips if their conference speech to included
"What my predecessor established is working, let's leave it another few years"
So having an understanding of the any challenges that people face in their job and obstacles with affecting change is important" Using Core Values to Find a Brands Voice
I have a better understanding of some of what's in play with the rise of the far right, social media's BUMMER model and the fact that it's unproductive to simply snipe from the sidelines (Especially anonymously), I may deliver messages in a grumpy tone - in the hope of being heard - but it's ALWAYS because I have solid solutions that are cost effective and know would work... and are always high impact/low cost, some ideas I've seen work in other settings.
But if you offer sound solutions the input is not heard... (Unfortunately) you've got to follow the tactics of Bannon and his crew and change the tone of voice in the hope you are heard.
It's easy when you have a platform and it's gossip like the Thomson Vs Sweeney grope gate...Or 'A Tory Teacher said some mean things about me... lost her job and now is standing against the SNP' (At least they are not up on criminal charges for something like the former first minister a cynic might retort)
With the Thommson/Sweeney gropegate... the SNP/Salmond acolytes are quick to say 'Innocent until proven guilty' but we have what is essentially a workplace complaint that would never see the light of day in the media at this stage if it was any other organisation other than Westminster/Holyrood during an election.
It's less easy for good ideas from the little people to be heard. I KNOW that these ideas and insights were and are sound, I can explain what's going on better than any highly paid media pundit (Who are increasingly and consistently wrong)... but it's painful always looking in the rear view mirror and having people say
"Ah I see what you mean when you said that 3-4 years ago"
But as a former supporter (Because of the cultural conditions of 'Yes' in 2014), my perspective is that the soundbites at the weekend ring extremely hollow indeed... take that input/opinion however you like.
We'll see if the 124,000 members who will be out canvassing for their candidate and the people they convince on the doorsteps feel the same way as these views on the 12th December.
Maybe we'll have a 'Who knew?' and ' 'No one saw it coming' when the results come out on the 13th Dec.
"The customer is not a moron. She's your wife" Ogilvy
On you go SNP candidates go 'grab your destiny' at GE2019, good luck picking up your expensive wage!
Spare the same thought for those who will be losing their jobs at Christmas if it is more than 35 SNP MPs as you would if it was a result like 1997 and the sympathy you'd have for the 29 colleagues who lose their jobs. I know what it's like... it's stressful at the best of times, worse at Christmas.
However many are returned to Westminster in January, try not to forget the people who helped you get that job and who you supposedly work for 'to make a difference.'
But don't be totally surprised if the headlines from the weekend about all the poverty overshadows yesterday's #HopeOverFear guff at the polls in 6 weeks time.
#GE2019
What worked in 2014 AKA the big rallies and/or trying to replicate the Trump 2016 shouty rallies to fire up the base, won't work today. 'Network Effects,' 'Feedback Loops' and 'Social Proof' won't work when trust has been lost (And was the reason I suggested MSP/MPs Skype with schools... I like win-win scenarios, would have been a 'win' for all involved as Dave Logan's Ted Talk highlights)
Want to know how trust is lost and the network effects gone?
You can tell by the lack of ReTweets... that and the fact the #Cybernats have killed off any opportunity to debate and have 'agree to disagree' conversations. May find the support base has done A LOT of damage.
Don't be surprised if people quietly go back to their pre-2014/5 voting habits of Labour.
It's a far trickier election to predict because we are now in the US model of 'The last story to break is what counts' so a negative story... For talking sake
An unsubstantiated claim that a Tory MP groped a Labour MP and it being the front page story.
Or NHS waiting times in a December election, could have a HUGE impact on the day
...Again the result of social media conditioning our behaviour and affecting elections.
But here's my take*
Labour - A clear majority thanks to Scotland quietly returning to pre-2014 voting habits without sharing too much on social media or in the polls.
Conservatives - Thatcher, Blaire Blair (Come on the guy was a Conservative by another name!), Cameron, May, Boris and austerity - No Thanks
SNP - Less than 35 MPs to send a clear message that both Brexit and IndyRef are less of a priority than education, NHS and the economy
Lib Dems - Revival may struggle because we all know it was Vince Cable who bailed the banks out
Brexit Party - Was a protest vote when it didn't matter. Could have as many MPs as UKIP have at Westminster in January
Smaller parties - it's not done much for us so people may just go for the party that could get a clear majority. Just like Brexit being 'My vote doesn't matter... I'll use this to give the Tories a kick' but everyone else was thinking the same = a shock leave result' may deliver the same 'shock' labour result
*NB There is LOTS candidates could do between now and the 12th Dec but it will be too new for them to consider.
And IF I'm wrong? I'm still right... Lol
In a post called
Grant Vs Rand I make an argument about 'politicians need victims' and how keeping the population stupid works for them, so why try to make a serious stab at The Attainment Gap or Digital Citizenship, right?
I think that the way politicians like Trump have dumbed down and weaponised social media for their own gain - falsely masquerading as an anti-elite/establishment 'man of the people,' just like Etonian Boris is trying to do.
Or what about all the 'Social Media companies need to do more... abuse... Election interference... BUT, it's election time we need to buy Facebook ads and target people in the same way Bannon and Trump did' irony? or hypocrisy?
Whether Boris and #Brexit or Sturgeon and #IndyRef2020, the levels of poverty here, lack of literacy improvements, lack of digital citizenship focus in education... I think the suggestions I made in Feb 2014 (Below) both proves the argument that these politicians need 'victims' and that they are responsible for the deterioration of the conversation on social media more than just about any other group.
Better education and more critical thought might lead people to see that life is no different under Sturgeon than it was with Thatcher's Tories. Not a great selling point for #IndyRef or #GE2019 on the doorsteps!
If people were to look at the various 'safety nets' that are there to protect those who fall on rough times - like the NHS that everyone is fighting to protect - they were policies that Labour got through parliament 'back in the day'
Blair skewed this party... it makes you wonder what kind of world and politicians we might have if John Smith was alive to be the Prime Minister instead of 'Things can Only get Better' Blair & Brown's 'New Labour'
With regard to my agreeing with Rands assertion that "politicians need victims" please allow me to play devils advocate for a moment...
How many adults leave school with a reading age of 5 or the inability of critical thought?
Do these factors then make certain newspapers their news source of choice?
Are such a newspapers capable of getting our politicians into No10?
Do politicians get all cozy with the owner of these publications?
If "yes" why would any politician from any party want to change any situation that delivers power in such a straightforward manner?
This might be especially true if you then consider the implications if politicians were committed to ensuring critical thought was a priority in our young people. After all people may start to wonder;
What is it exactly that politicians do?
If "we're in this together" can you let us the last time a politician had to visit a food bank?
If political action is indeed making "people's lives better," who for? Where do they live?
Why does every encounter with the public need to be stage managed and filled with party political drones, stooges and yes men?
"My experience is that our politics is now so poisonous we will never attract good, honest and decent people in the first place" Ross Thomson re the front page Groping gossip that is #GE2019
"Westminster [And I'd add Politicians] is a boys’ club” Black feels patronised, how the place is a world unto itself" Mhairi Black... Try being one of the 'Little People' and see how patronised you feel with the poor choices on the ballot paper.
"No one is coming to save us" Sam Conniff
(Certainly not the people on the stage at 'Freedom Square' on Saturday, they will save their own children from John Swinney's Education system by putting their kids in private education and their family from poverty with their wages, expenses, second jobs and hiring family members for jobs that don't exist... But they won't save the people in the many deprived areas and failing towns... otherwise they would have already in the last 12 years).
